Friday, February 29, 2008

The Delusion of Hope...

What kind of change can a junior senator with hardly less than 3 years of experience in the senate and no executive experience at all bring about? How could this inexperienced 40 something possibly influence veteran committee chairmen, who have more experience than him, to change things.
Talk is cheap and evangelical talk is often delusional, but is best suited for a religious deliberations, not politics. If one wants to be a captain, one ought to be a deck hand, an oarsman, and a navigator first. Else, everyone knows it'll be a ship that shall sink.
There's another word for hope talk without a plan, it's called BS. And that's one thing america cannot afford to dance with, especially in a bleak time with challenges on the economic and foreign policy front. There's an urgent need of someone who knows how to and can do things that need to be done.

There's no denying that Obama is a phenomenon like no other, but the best course for him would be to be a Vice President under hillary. That way, he can use his famous charisma to do things that hillary cannot, get some executive experience and better yet, learn how to be a good effective president when his time comes, as it surely will if he waits.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

The Good thing about Obama....

While there's no telling.. How bad it would be to have an inexperienced person like Obama become the next president of the united states. There are none the less some advantages with having him at the helm.

On the foreign policy front, america stands to benefit considerably. The world may no longer see america as a "Gun slinging cowboy country". If any of the new policies follow his lofty evangelical words, america might be able to reach ideological high ground.

By electing obama, America shall join the ranks of the few democracies in the world, which were able to elect a person of a minority group as a leader. There would doubtlessly be new empowerment of the african american community and many of the initiatives aimed at lifting the community above poverty would receive more than just lip service.

The presidency shall look very very clean. For Obama seems to have nothing big to show.. neither money...nor any skeletons in his closet. He would perhaps be the least richest president in terms of personal worth.
One more thing, Every immigrant in this country could perhaps set high targets for their kids. For if this guy can, a second generation immigrant kid should be able to.
But, alas... Obama has hurdles ahead of him in the form of McCain and Ralph Nader to cross, that if he ever manages to fend off the ruthless clinton machine.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

The Lady ought to fight.. and win!

The mood was sullen in the democratic debate two days ago. Obama seemed like he was looking down upon a visibly shook up hillary. Does this mean she is down for good? going by history... the clinton's have always been their best when they were beaten down.. and fight hard to get what they need.

The lady will fight.... win the three big states remaining... bag all the super delegates... and send obama and his so called message of hope back to illinois.

If hillary clinton were to bow down... Can women voters ever forgive themselves? This is the best shot women have at a presidency. It may take a whole generation before someone like hillary clinton can emerge.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

A disturbing Trend....

Pakistan appears to have taken a u-turn in political alignment. The general and his cronies(PML-Q) have fallen from grace. The PPP under Asif zardari and the PML under Nawaz Sharif have begun flexing their muscles with their new found power, and might work out a coalition government between themselves.

These may be bad times for Pakistan. These newbies may reverse the general's policy of keeping fundamentalist elements in check. Furthermore, they might start engaging in a clean up of power structure and shall of course have several disagreements over power sharing. Having two kings in power is never workable. Nawaz sharif will ofcourse try his very best to unseat Asif zardari, who does not wield as much influence as his wife did.
This would only mean more chaos, a ripe condition for the jihadis to thrive.

The question as to whether the new government will be stable enough to wield power like the general, and give a good hand to the united states in it's fight with islamic terrorism remains unanswered.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The deluded mobile providers of America....!

The three relevant mobile providers left standing (sprint doesn't count anymore) came up with yet another grand stupid idea today... a $99 plan with unlimited minutes!

Maybe some business users might switch on to it... No sane regular idiot with a job that doesn't involve using a mobile phone would ever want to get on to a plan like that... Not with the economy this bad.

Why don't these companies get it? Firstly the yearly contracts that make a mobile plan sound so restrictive, secondly those crappy handsets they sell at unrealistic steep prices , thirdly their outdated service or lack of variety in service offerings.

hell... there isn't a good pay as you go option, nor data plans that make sense.

Look where Japan and South Korea... Or even india are. America has only just begun to wake up to texting.. while the world is cruising away with all kinds of wild fourth generation services.

If there's one thing the Mobile service companies can do.... they can cheapen up the rate plans to make more users use their services. And they should stop selling the devices and leave that part to the phone makers. That way, Users shall have more choice and they may also end up having better devices in their hands.

Think of it...If everyone in the US had access to a fully loaded fourth generation phone, they would use it so much to do so many different things that countless number of applications will then be developed to serve them. The phone companies could then collect little chunks of fee off these services that ride off the mobile bandwidth.

That i'm sure would amount to a lot more money than what they make now by squeezing out consumers with their stiff plans.

Sony in the Limelight......

Toshiba calling off it's fight with Sony by pulling it's HD DVD's off the shelf.... would mean one thing....elated PS3 owners and unhappy Xbox 360 owners.

The folks at Sony must be happy.....This was best thing ever that happened to them for decades after all those lost battles. After having seen their BetaMax lose to JVC's VHS, and with Toshiba's DVD standard prevailing over their high density CD's, having their format win at last must taste real sweet.

Sony had some serious losses of market share and businesses this decade. They gave up their lead in gaming to Microsoft's XBOX, and after failing to come up with an extension to the Walkman, their dominance in the music player business was gobbled up by the IPOD. Their futuristic AIBO robot business had been abandoned, and Sony was left to stick their memory sticks in their own devices.

If only the suckers at Sony realized that opening up standards, and keeping thier technology open would have kept them great like they were when they started with akio morita at the helm.

Wonder who is gonna buy those HD DVD players? Maybe the Science museums.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Of Childhood...

"Taare Jameen Par"... what a movie!!! I'm sure anyone who grew up battling the indian school system and parental expectations could relate to the movie in more ways than one. The movie brings to light the ignored plight of a dyslexic kid caught in a school system that does not recognize his problem. The problems of dyslexia during childhood, they say are usually overcome if they have a understanding mentor or parent who sees them through the turmoil of coping with basic learning.
The movie drives this point through while portraying the world from the eyes of a kid. The life of a kid who imagines things like there's no tomorrow. A beautiful world of fist fights with the water shower, fishing in a drainage pond, buck teeth, playing with dogs, day dreaming is shot in a very real way.
The movie hints that every Kid is important, whether he is dyslexic or disabled. Childhood is the greatest gift on earth and nothing should rob it of it's innocence.
There's a strong message in there for all those cuckooed up indian teachers, and those unfortunate confused parents who seem to think the only way out is to breed their kids for competition, no matter what the cost. Hopefully, this movie might awake some sleepy heads and make them realize that it's not worth making kids chase class room marks and competing like the sky is about to fall.
A good informed mentor or parent is all a kid needs, and he is best left alone to figure his way out without too much pressure. After all, a kid is still supposed to be growing! and how can he grow to be himself, if he's asked to be someone else or be subject to unnecessary pressure.
Aamir Khan has a quality that distinguishes him from all those other indian cinema actors. He seems to be chasing movies with a message these days, and he is getting very good at it. Whether it be rang de basanti, or this one. The script is beautifully written by a Mr.Amol Gupte, who supposedly spent 7 years researching and interviewing kids, teachers and parents.
http://taarezameenpar.com/

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Of Super Delegates... and Obama.

There are reports of huge voter turnouts at democratic primaries, with the whole obama and hillary equation.


Hillary has defied predictions too. She won the Massachussets primary, in spite of the big weights of the state, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry endorsing Obama. Only thing she appears short of is campaign cash, which she's more than filling up with her own money (5 million recently). On the top of it, She is capturing the Hispanic vote in a major way.


Obama, it seems may have captured more of the popular vote so far and his campaing coffers are clinking with money. His campaign appears to have attracted funds at the rate of 1 million dollars per day in january, and 30% of that coming from people who have contributed 200$ or less. It's interesting that obama is being able to generate so much enthusiasm from the grassroots of the democratic party.


Could Obama the one? He could be, but they will not let him be. Who they? The super delegates who represent the undemocratic side of the democratic party elections. The super delegates are nominated members (usually ex-presidents, governors, congressmen and senators) who number around 20% of the overall delegate count.

And the fact that they can vote for anyone irrespective of the popular vote make them a very decisive factor. Hell, they could even vote for a candidate who has dropped out of the race. This group was created for the sole reason of protecting the party from nominating an unwinnable candidate, even if the party liked him.


The super delegates may prove to be obama's achille's heel even if he managed to run well till the end zone. Hillary has far too much influence on the Super Delegates, and they may come forward to save the day for her if she needs it. Maybe they will, for the popular obama may sink the democratic ship if he has his way.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Why do the Good men get left behind?


The first round of primaries did their work of sifting candidates.... but maybe the wrong one's were left behind. The candidates with the sanest and most pragmatic view of all.... were left to fend for themselves. What of Fred thomson on democratic side who folded soon after iowa? What of ron paul on the republican side who is not even asked questions at debates any more?

If there was one thing ron paul did in last night's GOP debate..he tried to bring attention on what should be the main issue. He spoke of how cheap it was for McCain and romney to fight over statements on a war, which was being fought for the wrong reasons and how the administration doesn't seem to get it that devaluing the dollar would take the country down the wrong path.

As everywhere around the world.. ...Maybe it takes more than just having the right causes at heart to win elections.

Speech Outsourcing????

I couldn't believe it for a minute when someone mentioned that a friend of his (who has Ph.D in literature) actually writes speeches for a Senator here in the US. The surprising part, he works for an outsourcing firm in india that offers speech outsouring as one of it's services.

Apparently, the speech writers do some serious research on the senator's political views, past speeches, future vision, and style..of all things, before they proceed on to write his speeches. If there can be market for speech writing, what next?

http://www.b2kcorp.com/testimonials.html

Will Obama sink the Democratic Ship?

Mr.Obama must be thanking his stars these days. After the "New Hampshire and Nevada" double whammy from Hillary, everyone thought he might bow down for good now.


No one suspected he might lose South carolina, but no one thought he would win by a two to one margin. It's too bad that the Clintons tainted themselves with dirt and at times were even portrayed as being racist. Bill Clinton, who was once praised as being the closest thing to a black president has become the raison d'etre for the blacks voting across racial lines in south carolina.


The endorsements from the Kennedy's, and John Kerry reinforce the notion that those in the democratic party who are unhappy with the Clintons are siding with Obama now. Even if obama won the democratic nomination eventually, will he be able to win a Presidential election? Especially if he were to face someone like John McCain. The chances are slim, considering that he is not battle tested like Hillary and the Clinton political machinery.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Lessons from a Jigsaw puzzle


While any grown up would dismiss the idea of a 500 piece jigsaw puzzle as childs play, It's nothing but. Found myself struggling in disbelief as it took almost four days to bring together all the 500 pieces. There's no doubt, it's a fantastic right brain activity that will test your pattern recognition ability and your sense of direction in the two dimensions.



Much like life, the act of piecing the puzzle together brings hope, despair, and frustation along the way. It teaches you that there are times when being smart gets things done, but there is no substitute for rote hard work sometimes and being smart would not be enough. The puzzle also brings home the point that working on your disadvantages sometimes is not as smart as working on your advantages. Highly recommended if you haven't racked the right side of your brain enough lately.

Friday, January 18, 2008

The size of the Stimulus Package.

The 140 billion dollars of stimulus package announced on Friday says one thing clearly. With the Fed Chief himself hinting at a Save the Economy plan, chances are we may already be in a Recession.


But how paltry the 140 billion dollars seem....? It's roughly 1% of the Overall GDP of the US. It's assumed to rescue the economy from the troubles caused by the housing market. The housing market makes up around 10% of the economy and indirectly influencing consumer spending (that in turn makes up two thirds of the economy) in big ways. How can a 1% injection save a 10% that has gone really really bad?

Maybe, the neo cons in the administration should go easy on the unnecessary war, bring the boys back, and divert the 150 billion dollars being spent there to homeland security. More homeland security would indeed mean more on land jobs for many people. It's a pity that the 600 billion dollars spent on the war may have been spent on the wrong cause of propping up an unstable state, and may have been better spent keeping the country safe from the inside.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Big Bank cries "FIRE!!!"

When the tall guy in a crowded room cries "Fire", what follows is a stampede. There was surprise in the markets when "Goldman Sachs", perhaps the only bank untainted from the sub-prime mess predicted "Recession" coming in 2008.
Given the gloom in the larger market, it could only get worse given such statements. Hope it does not lead the crowd to jump the gun. Thank goodness... Houses don't sell as quickly as Stocks. If not, we would have seen a quick domino fall. Unfortunately for everyone, if there were a recession, it would be a slow painful one.

RIP..... Sir Hilllary!


Edmund Hillary passed away yesterday. ahh.. what a wonderful life it may have been? By scaling the mountain that the world almost gave up on, he set the limits high on human endurance and resolve to conquer difficult odds.

Hillary did not stop at Mount everest. He went on expeditions to the south and north poles, scaled around 10 more peaks in the himalayas, and even went on a jet boat expedition to the mouth of river ganga. All the more, he channeled his fame from younger days towards philanthropy ends, helping the Nepali sherpa's in many ways, thus earning him a honorary nepali citizenship.

The world would miss men like Sir hillary, true Knights with guts and heart.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Small, Cheap, Efficient.... The Nano from India

The Tata Nano was let out of the wraps today.. A 10 foot long, 5 feet wide 4 seater car at 2500$ that goes 65 mph, and gives 50 miles to the gallon. They expect it to go into production this fall season.

If anything, this ought to scare the auto majors making inroads into the developing world and the chinese who may face some serious competition in the cheap car business.

Nano beats the 35 mpg goal set by the US congress for 2020. Maybe, this car is what the world badly needs in this era of $3 per gallon fuel prices.
The car may fail to meet the quality standards at many parts of the world, but it would surely get better as Tata gets to work more on it. If this car were to be a big hit, it sadly means more traffic to india's already clogged up roads, and more carbon emissions.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

The Lady is back in action...


Thanks to New Hampshire... Madame hillary is back in the game. She may have learnt a thing or two from her husband, who did the same in 1992 to earn the name:"come back kid".

This should put brakes on the junior senator (Obama) from illinois, who wants too much too soon. Or maybe not because the upcoming primary in south carolina might swing his way easily, with african americans forming a major part of the democratic party there.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Whom will the coming election Empower?

2008 may be a pivotal moment for two rights movements that have been fought for far too long in america. On the one hand, the Womans Suffrage movement from the 1920's and the Modern African American Civil rights movement from the 1960's


The fact that the next presidency shall belong to the democratic party, does not surprise anyone anymore.


If Obama wins, He would perhaps, on account of representing black america in some way, would close the gap between white and black america, that minorities have always complained about. Although Obama does not have any civil rights background (His father being kenyan and him being far removed from any of the hard battles that african americans had to fight), He brings something very unique to the presidency. He's half white and half black, in race terms, and the fact that his father is not an american might elevate america to being the most liberal and representative democracy in the world.


The fact that he is black in a sense, will set the bar higher for the african american minority. Maybe, we shall not see statisticians beaming details of "first black this.. and first black that" anymore. Because the presidency, the highest goal of being represented would have been achieved.

The downside to obama winning would be that he comes to the table without much experience. Wil he run the country or will those under him tell him how to run the country?

If Hillary wins, women would win their badly denied representation and find their heroine in her occupying perhaps the most powerful position in the world. It's a pity that one of the oldest democracies in the world is late to the party of having a woman as it's leader, but it's never too late. There could not be a more opportune time than this. For woman leaders as hillary, are few to be seen in american politics. She is perhaps the most equipeed, with her experience and background, to take on the male political bastion. And the fact that she would come to power with the entire clinton machinery, that her husband painstakingly built, would signal a return to those roaring 90's when america basked in economic prosperity.

The downside to having hillary as a leader is that america would go in history as having been ruled by two families, the clintons and bushes, for 24 years. America would not look much different than any of the budding democracies where a few families control power.


Whatever the result, the next election is expected to make either the women or the african americans sigh in relief after a long battle for representation. What if it were both? A Hillary presidency with Obama as the Vice President. Would that not be wonderful?

Friday, January 4, 2008

What will you bring... 2008? a Recession??

The job numbers from december came out short with private businesses actually cutting jobs, taking unemployment to the worst since 2003.
The much spoken about 400 billion dollars in ARM loan resets this year are still up in the air. There are no numbers announced yet on how the Fed's plan to freeze rates worked it's wonders.
The larger banks of wall street are showing quarter by quarter of losses, and are being brought out by overseas investors.
Could this be recession? we'd have to wait. Maybe, the Fed's expected rate cut at the end of the month shall say more. Maybe, the spending numbers for the holiday season shall reveal more.

Not Obama... Not Huckabe...!!! Come on.. Iowa.

If there's anything that iowa showed last night, it's a great place for the wrong candidates to win.

It's too bad that Joe Biden is out of the race.

Maybe all the female voters were wooed by oprah winfrey towards Obama. Maybe his charm helped too. He talks well and has good personality.. No doubt! But, does he have experience to back him? The fact that he lacks any executive experience and no foreign policy background at all makes Obama an untested candidate that america cannot afford to play with.

As for Mr.Huckabee with his NRA endorsements and pastor background, he would be the most unappropriate candidate at this point of time when a more pragmatic approach towards foreign policy is required. If Mr.Huckabee were to be nominated and win, it would be the most bleakest moment for america's liberal values and world leadership.

Both candidates are mentioned as being change candidates. But what record of change do they bring to the table? Obama has no record of ever having achieved change anywhere, and Huckabee is more likely to change things for the worst (Just think of what would make a man say such insensitive comments as he did about a kid with HIV a decade ago).

Maybe, New hampshire shall change things for good, and undo all the damage from Iowa.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

If only the Best came out!!!!

Iowa shall shape up the presidential candidate list for the two parties tonight, and going by the past "Iowa spares none but the best three" and everyone else is reminded that they should now sit on the side lines.

Would iowa provide a reality check to the junior senator a.k.a Obama and his lofty ambitions?
Would iowa shake up madame hillary's invicibility?
Ofcourse, it would push actor politicians like guiliani to the side.
But can Iowa show to america the worthiness of unpopular candidates like Joe Biden.
Would it embrace zealots like huckabee and do injustice to liberty?

Unfortunately.. the results seem predictable. On the democratic side, it shall be obama, hillary, and edwards. On the Republican side, it shall be huckabee, mcCain, and Romney.

Aren't they the popular bunch? If only Iowa propped up the Best, and not the popular candidates.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Adios... Mrs.Bhutto! Could you have made a difference?

Could it be that Benazir bhutto's death made her a larger idol than she ever was in real life. "There goes the last hope of democracy for pakistan..." the papers say, but was she really that important in the larger scheme of things in that tumultous country?

Benazir deserves praise for having been the first woman prime minister of a muslim country, especially in a country that is still yet to shake off it's feudal and male chauvinistic past. She was perhaps more connected to the west than any of her peers. But did she mean much to pakistan?

She clung on to the legacy of her father and took on the leadership of the people's party as a defacto leader. Benazir spent more time outside the country than at home with her party or people. Her two terms as a prime minister were cut short with corruption charges. She never had a chance to prove herself either on the foreign policy front or the domestic front, largely because she never had that much time on her hands and nothing significant happened on the foreign policy arena when she was in power.

Feminists from the west may romanticize the notion of a woman leader going in and reforming the bad practices of an islamic society. But benazir's record does not prove much. She had big things on her agenda, but could not deliver anything substantial on the laws concerning the treatment of women in pakistan.

Benazir was indeed the voice of moderation, and a voice at that. All she could have done, had she survived and won, would have restored a semblence of democracy, with the mischevious elements of pakistani society going about thier business as usual. The real power in pakistan, as they say always rested in the hands of the army, with the political process being a facade to all the chaos that's called pakistan.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Why ...... Iowa?


It's that time of the year when all the presidential candidates from both parties line up to impress their party men from this little midwest state, all because it hosts the first caucus. you'll see candidates lining up at diners with million dollar smiles, shake hands with farmers and do whatever they have to get the vote on.

The earlier states that host primaries are always known to have swayed the rest of the country. Think of how different things would have been if Howard dean were president. Although he was clearly the right candidate the last time around, he went crashing down once iowa trashed him. Not than John Kerry was any bad, but he clearly wasn't as good as Dean. What made the difference in that case? Iowa.

But Why iowa? Come on... the state is not even representative of the whole country, being 92% white, 3%black, 3%hispanic,1.5% asian... Iowa represents a slice of america from some time in the long past.

It's true that the caucus system of voting is unique, atleast the democratic party's version, and makes for good tradition. But should tradition be adopted at the cost of common sense?

Why can't the entire country have all the caucuses or primaries done with in a single day. That would prevent states like iowa from having that unnecessary influence and level the playing field for everyone.

Now that's unlikely to happen. There may be an advantage for some players with having this farmland state going first, so they won't go along quoting tradition as the reason.

Just as why it's likely to be a long time before the elections move from a tuesday to a weekend, when the country can vote all at once, the tradition of this little state dominating the presidential election will continue for a long time to come. So will the farm subsidies that give the world a reason to doubt america's commitment to free trade.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Early morning ads to Find god.... !

ahh... the time that we're caught in? Churches advertising on morning radio... asking you to start the new year 2008 by bonding again with god. No, it wasn't one of those evangelical channels, but a regular news channel. There have always been such ads on commuter trains , but to hear it on morning radio with a opportunist market oriented strategy of using the new year for proselytizing people , gives a whole new meaning to conversions.

Well, the catholic church can't be blamed with it's recent loss of market share coming f rom child abuse law suits. They seem to be doing whatever any company would do to gain market share....Chalk out a branding strategy and a marketing plan to capture new audiences. With churches being the million dollar machines that they are now... what could stop them. Talk of Business practices being applied to religion.

If the world catches on to this. What could be next? The mullah's placing ads over middle east... asking people to send their kids to madrassas... Or some fake swami in india advertising on MTV.. asking people to check him out.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Here come.. The sheikhs in shining armor


Middle east money is nothing new to wall street. The petro dollars always came back to feed M&A frenzy, and hedge fund adventures. But of late.. it's more in the open and it almost feels like the rich sheikhs of middle east are coming in to protect their investment.

There are glaring headlines around. The abu dhabi investment authority coming in to citi group's rescue at it's bleakest times by buying up 7.5 billion dollars of equity. The Kuwaiti's buying up 50% of dow chemical's plastic division. And unknown investors from the middle east ponying up 11.5 billion dollars for UBS AG's equity, especially when UBS's balance sheet is the most murkiest from the subprime mess.

Its true that all the assets come cheap now with a cheaper dollar. Save for them gorging up on what's available, there must be a protection play involved.

After all, the middle eastern oil churners don't want to let their biggest market, the united states to go through a recession. Especially with the dollar going the way it has been, they wouldn't want it to go further down. Well, they cannot afford to for their oil revenues are stored in dollar denominations.

Of course, they would do anything that they can to protect their favorite investment, even if it means propping up companies with bad balance sheets so the markets continue as though nothing happened.

They may also be leveraging themselves for the far future when oil would dry up. Borse dubai taking up 20% of Nasdaq and Qatar buying out 20% of london stock exchange. This can only be a measure to integrate better into global markets.

Maybe, when the oil dries up and the world starts using bio fuels, the sheiks would live off the spreads from investment deals with the middle east transforming itself from a oil maker into a financial trading powerhouse. What next? a macau or las vegas styled desert gambling oasis. maybe!!!

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Can you stop this Flood... Mr.Paulson?

There's gossip around that Hank Paulson's Treasury shall come up with a plan to save all those 1.5 million home owners who face painful payment resets on around 400 billion dollars of mortgages expected through the end of 2007 and 2008.

All the major lenders are supposed to be involved, and the plan is to freeze the ARM loans for a couple of years.

Of course not everyone shall be rescued. Apparently, it's the "Middle tier" who are still solvent that shall be rescued. As for those speculators, and those who weren't even supposed to be in those bloated homes, if not for the tricks played by the lenders and appraisers, shall be left to fend for themselves.

Mr.Paulson seems all out to save as much as he can before the mortgage crisis spreads virally through the economy. But tell me Mr.Paulson, will the rate freeze save anything? will consumers still spend in spite of those stop gap measures? will it really stop a recession? It's true that it will perhaps delay the pain, but someone has to suck up the losses... and it should not be the federal government with the taxpayers money.

Maybe this great free market economy should be allowed to correct itself, like it always has through periods of "irrational exuberance" as Mr.Greenspan would say.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

The GOP debate last night!!!!

Everyone says that the Grand Old Party doesn't have a chance to come back big. It had its 12 years of house and senate majorities that came to a screeching halt in 2007.

There are reports that the iraq war may have made the party unpopular in the red states.

The debate last night was interesting and filled with questions that may not have been asked in a plain vanilla debate. The "you tube" video questions were well made. some even went to the extent of making cartoons and animations, while others brandished guns and bibles.

The viewers asked all kinds of things from Vice presidential power to abortion, but there was only one single question about iraq. It's weird, but it appears that iraq does not really matter much anymore. Or were such questions cut out deliberately? who knows??

The front runners "Rudy Guiliani and Mitt Romney" both seemed slick and shallow in their own ways. Mitt romney had ready made answers for all kinds of things and he kept a bold poker face all through the debate. Rudy Guiliani came across like he was hiding a lot of things in his closet, and his jokes did not help.

Fred Thompson seemed too old and his statements lacked the firmness that would be required in a future president. Well, he at least took the time to chide both guiliani and romney on immigration.

If america ever needed another president with a weird sense of humor, guiliani would fit the bill perfectly. we could have a humor match between bush and guiliani, and i'm sure it would be a tight one.

The honorable John mcCain seems to have lost his sense of reality. All that work he did across party lines and the times when he took bold stances on issues not caring about his own party, seems so distant in the past.

Well, maybe he woke up to the reality that he cannot become a president without taking the middle line and doing about turns.

He did not seem to have a clear strategy on iraq and his stand that "we are there for the long run" does not seem to tune with reality. Well, Mr.mcCain still shows clairty when he says that he is committed to vetoing pork barrel projects and cutting down the federal deficit.

There's one candidate with lots of fire in the belly and guts, if any: Ron Paul. He had the boldest and the most sanest stand on a lot of issues. The argument between him and mcCain over iraq was interesting. Ron paul had some powerful statements: "Iraq is similar to vietnam. There was more progress made during peace time in vietnam, than the twenty years when we and the french were there".

Huckabee, they say is gaining ground with all the religious right backing him up. I'm sure the crowd would love him for he thinks that the IRS should be the first institution to chop down should there be a move to curtail federal spending in a big way. Beware of the next tax season...Mr.Huckabee.

Mr.Tancredo, known only for one thing and one thing only: His hate for immigrants. i'm sure no one thinks he'll go far. Not even for a Vice president nomination.

As was expected, everyone made sure that they kept the IRA and the religious right happy.

When someone asked "How many guns do you have at home?", guiliani was perhaps the only who said he had none. Well... he tried to woo the IRA a few months ago without much luck. He even seems to have tried a joke by having his wife call in during his address. Little wonder that no one smiled!!!

Everyone nodded that they believe every word of the bible, and not a single candidate took the side of the gay brigadier who asked a question. Well, they have good reason to. No one is expected to make it past the GOP primaries without the help of the religious right.

The good thing was most of the candidates almost went to the extent of promising that they won't rise the taxes, save for ron paul and duncan hunter who said it with some reservations.

It's interesting that the brigadier was actually related to the hillary campaign. Maybe, hillary is showing the GOP a taste of the "Swift Boat" tactics that they used to sink good old "John Kerry" as a flip-flop.


From all this, it does not seem that there there shall not be a credible candidate to take on Hillary after all. Well, if it's romney, then the democratic party may have a problem on its hands.

If Iraq was the sole thing that changed the fate of the republican party in the senate and house elections. And If Iraq does not matter much anymore, will the democratic party keep the high ground during the presidential election?

Could Oil kill your growth... India?



The 100$ per barrel for oil is wreaking havoc on retail prices everywhere in the world, but not in india. None of the consumers are feeling the pinch yet... Instead the governments simply sucking it up by using up all those excess foreign currency reserves.

Well, what else can the central government do? There are general elections around the corner and a couple of states seem headed to the polls too. the last thing they need is a backlash based on high petrol prices.

All the state refiners were ordered not to increase the prices, and they are buying into stabilization bonds being issued by the government to the tune of some 2,50,000 crores.

How long can the party last? Oil's not going back to the sweet old $60 levels of 2005 any time soon. How long can the costs not be passed to the consumer? The thing is once they do, it will drive up prices of all things from consumer durables to grocery items. If that dampens growth.. would that suck the steam out of the indian consumer machine. Well, we'd have to see!

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Where are we headed... India?

Coming back from my recent ten day trip to india, i couldn't help but pen the changes. Not that change is new with india. It seems to be changing every year and rapidly at that.

The one thing you cannot miss and will not deny is that the traffic looks like it may have quadrupled. Easy financing and banks chasing everyone with loan offers may have done the trick. One can only imagine what that $2500 car from tata will do to indian roads.

Spending has gone up in a big way. People seem all too happy to spend more wads of cash on all kinds of things. There are people with new money all around.

Speaking of cell phones...I've seen 400$ phones everywhere i went in india. Say that to an american consumer who would rather take a yearly plan than spend outright on a device. And yes, the whole country seems to be busy taking a cell phone call. It's the second largest growing market for cell phones after all.

Air Travel has increased and there are newer airlines popping in.. although a majority of the current ones are bleeding with losses. I guess it's case of " the pioneers who creates the market will be the ones to stay". It's true there is not enough airport capacity yet, but they expect the infrastructure to catch on. My city, which had only a single airline coming in half empty a few years ago, now has five airlines arriving packed all the time. And yes, they are expanding the airport now after all the airlines have come in, instead of it happening the other way.

One big change recently.. the entry of GPS devices. there are GPS dvices being sold for bigger metro areas. There are more GPS usage options being sold than in the US where people would rather settle for pre-loaded boxes than tinker with their mobile phone and run a GPS application on it. Now, i have not seen anything along comprehensive online yellow pages yet, but once it does arrive i'm sure it would open up a host of opportunities.

Retail is the big word now with even smaller cities seeing bigger retail outlets coming in with an one place shop all option. Things may not catch fire that quickly in this area. Thanks to mom and pop shop unions opposing every bit of it. but say that to the urban consumer for whom such places also provide entertainment options.

The big hot real estate market, everyone says, is finally cooling down. And although people don't think the prices would rise any higher, they certainly don't expect them to fall down. How would they? All those billions of people need places to live, don't they? But at the given prices, it's difficult for a normal middle class person to get into the home market.

If there's one breed of men that's not in touch with what's happening, it's definitely the politicians. Apart from the central leadership, several state governments seem to have no idea as to what the hell is happening. while i was there, there was no announcement that indicated anything that made economic sense. Someone was questioning the compromise chief minister candidate of karnataka about the traffic situation in bangalore and his reply was that "he would call a meeting and discuss it"? speak about politicians without an agenda and no idea what to do!
The only thing any of the politicians seem to think they ought to do is to create "Special Economic zones" and everyone's out to do it, making them run into environment and relocation problems.

Thanks to the civil service for keeping the country running. If not for them, who knows what these political brutes may have done.

All in all, india's running at high speed and it only remains to be seen what kind of a growth story it's going to be. It's true that there have been sizeable investments in infrastructure over the past decade, but they just do'nt seem to be enough for the growth being seen. There arent' enough roads or public transportation options at all places. There aren't enough airports for the airlines.

Unless there is state level leadership that looks beyond vote bank politics and takes bold decisions with an economic mindset, the growth story that is india will be confined to a few well placed indians. Although the central leadership takes larger macro decisions, their translation to reality lies in the hands of local and state governments, which are filled with degenerate idiots lost in a different time. Maybe Big Business and the efficient Civil Service shall do what needs to be done to take the country forward, but to what kind of a future... it remains to be seen!

Monday, November 5, 2007

Whoa... Mr.Ambani.... aren't you rich?


Make way everyone..... Mukesh ambani is officially the richest man in the world with a net worth of 68 billion dollars... surpassing Carlos slim by a decent margin.

But tell me..... Mr.Ambani... How rich are you?
Not a day goes by without some news in the papers about you and your brother fighting for remnants of your father's empire.

It's true that you earned every penny that you flaunt about in ostentatious gifts. I'm speaking about that custom airbus airplane you gifted your wife lately.

But what legacy would you want to leave behind?

Can you ever scratch the back of Warren Buffet "the sage of omaha"?
Can you be humble and live a life of frugality ever?
I mean... can you even think of giving away half your wealth for charity?
Can you afford to step down and live for bigger causes like bill gates did?

Yeah... you may have made your mark in larger economic history sir... but how about giving back a little back in dividends to those needy shareholders of that larger entity called india that made your compensation possible. It's all about keeping your shareholders happy... isn't it? If nothing, it would create new consumers that you can make more wealth on.

Maybe it's a philosphical issue. Should wealth be flaunted? or should it be put to work in effective ways to do good to sections of society that are left behind.

Ayn rand might be puzzled by this question... she never spoke of flaunting.