Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Where are we headed... India?

Coming back from my recent ten day trip to india, i couldn't help but pen the changes. Not that change is new with india. It seems to be changing every year and rapidly at that.

The one thing you cannot miss and will not deny is that the traffic looks like it may have quadrupled. Easy financing and banks chasing everyone with loan offers may have done the trick. One can only imagine what that $2500 car from tata will do to indian roads.

Spending has gone up in a big way. People seem all too happy to spend more wads of cash on all kinds of things. There are people with new money all around.

Speaking of cell phones...I've seen 400$ phones everywhere i went in india. Say that to an american consumer who would rather take a yearly plan than spend outright on a device. And yes, the whole country seems to be busy taking a cell phone call. It's the second largest growing market for cell phones after all.

Air Travel has increased and there are newer airlines popping in.. although a majority of the current ones are bleeding with losses. I guess it's case of " the pioneers who creates the market will be the ones to stay". It's true there is not enough airport capacity yet, but they expect the infrastructure to catch on. My city, which had only a single airline coming in half empty a few years ago, now has five airlines arriving packed all the time. And yes, they are expanding the airport now after all the airlines have come in, instead of it happening the other way.

One big change recently.. the entry of GPS devices. there are GPS dvices being sold for bigger metro areas. There are more GPS usage options being sold than in the US where people would rather settle for pre-loaded boxes than tinker with their mobile phone and run a GPS application on it. Now, i have not seen anything along comprehensive online yellow pages yet, but once it does arrive i'm sure it would open up a host of opportunities.

Retail is the big word now with even smaller cities seeing bigger retail outlets coming in with an one place shop all option. Things may not catch fire that quickly in this area. Thanks to mom and pop shop unions opposing every bit of it. but say that to the urban consumer for whom such places also provide entertainment options.

The big hot real estate market, everyone says, is finally cooling down. And although people don't think the prices would rise any higher, they certainly don't expect them to fall down. How would they? All those billions of people need places to live, don't they? But at the given prices, it's difficult for a normal middle class person to get into the home market.

If there's one breed of men that's not in touch with what's happening, it's definitely the politicians. Apart from the central leadership, several state governments seem to have no idea as to what the hell is happening. while i was there, there was no announcement that indicated anything that made economic sense. Someone was questioning the compromise chief minister candidate of karnataka about the traffic situation in bangalore and his reply was that "he would call a meeting and discuss it"? speak about politicians without an agenda and no idea what to do!
The only thing any of the politicians seem to think they ought to do is to create "Special Economic zones" and everyone's out to do it, making them run into environment and relocation problems.

Thanks to the civil service for keeping the country running. If not for them, who knows what these political brutes may have done.

All in all, india's running at high speed and it only remains to be seen what kind of a growth story it's going to be. It's true that there have been sizeable investments in infrastructure over the past decade, but they just do'nt seem to be enough for the growth being seen. There arent' enough roads or public transportation options at all places. There aren't enough airports for the airlines.

Unless there is state level leadership that looks beyond vote bank politics and takes bold decisions with an economic mindset, the growth story that is india will be confined to a few well placed indians. Although the central leadership takes larger macro decisions, their translation to reality lies in the hands of local and state governments, which are filled with degenerate idiots lost in a different time. Maybe Big Business and the efficient Civil Service shall do what needs to be done to take the country forward, but to what kind of a future... it remains to be seen!

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